The Smiling Curve
Value is migrating to the extremes of the value chain — raw infrastructure at one end, and direct human relationships and expertise at the other. The middle (implementation, integration, generic software) is collapsing. This is the smiling curve applied to the AI transformation.
+31.5pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+47.4% · 5 instruments
S&P 500 same period+15.9%
Call directionBullish ↑
A bullish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DDOGDatadog | 257.51 | -5.7% | +121.0% | +105.2pp | — |
| ARMARM Holdings | 210.07 | -7.3% | +41.2% | +25.3pp | — |
| AAPLApple | 348.00 | +1.2% | +34.4% | +18.6pp | — |
| TSMTSMC | 412.17 | -4.6% | +20.6% | +4.7pp | — |
| ASMLASML | 1562.47 | -6.8% | +19.8% | +3.9pp | — |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 763.59 | -1.2% | +15.9% | — | — |
| Basket: The ends of the curve: upstream IP/fabs, downstream experience | |||||
Recent evidence 303 signals filed
The research system PRO
- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v57, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 303 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
- Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
When we're wrong
2 theses are currently moving against us — Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +39.7% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +62.1% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.