The SaaS Apocalypse
AI tooling is dismantling the value proposition of incumbent SaaS products. The pattern is not head-on competition but death by a thousand cuts — no single vibe-coded tool competes with Photoshop, but when millions of users need only 1% of its functionality, the market fragments irreparably.
+46.2pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+62.1% · 7 instruments
S&P 500 same period+15.9%
Call directionBearish ↓
A bearish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBEAdobe | 270.39 | +6.0% | +10.7% | -5.2pp | — |
| FIGFigma | 23.95 | +4.2% | +11.8% | -4.0pp | — |
| IGViShares Software ETF | 108.60 | -0.2% | +35.0% | +19.1pp | — |
| CRMSalesforce | 250.36 | +3.5% | +35.3% | +19.4pp | — |
| NOWServiceNow | 156.68 | +2.3% | +53.0% | +37.1pp | — |
| WDAYWorkday | 209.85 | +3.4% | +61.8% | +45.9pp | — |
| TEAMAtlassian | 222.57 | -1.3% | +226.9% | +211.0pp | — |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 763.59 | -1.2% | +15.9% | — | — |
| Basket: Seat-priced SaaS: sector ETF plus the canaries | |||||
Recent evidence 244 signals filed
The research system PRO
- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v44, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 244 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
- Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
When we're wrong
2 theses are currently moving against us — Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +39.7% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +62.1% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.