The SaaS Apocalypse
AI tooling is dismantling the value proposition of incumbent SaaS products. The pattern is not head-on competition but death by a thousand cuts — no single vibe-coded tool competes with Photoshop, but when millions of users need only 1% of its functionality, the market fragments irreparably.
+39.4pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+56.5% · 7 instruments
S&P 500 same period+17.1%
Call directionBearish ↓
A bearish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBEAdobe | 251.67 | +4.6% | +3.0% | -14.1pp | — |
| FIGFigma | 23.01 | +7.1% | +7.4% | -9.7pp | — |
| CRMSalesforce | 246.70 | +4.6% | +33.3% | +16.2pp | — |
| IGViShares Software ETF | 109.58 | +1.8% | +36.2% | +19.1pp | — |
| NOWServiceNow | 148.59 | +6.2% | +45.1% | +28.0pp | — |
| WDAYWorkday | 196.63 | +4.2% | +51.6% | +34.5pp | — |
| TEAMAtlassian | 217.12 | +6.1% | +218.9% | +201.7pp | — |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 771.77 | +0.3% | +17.1% | — | — |
| Basket: Seat-priced SaaS: sector ETF plus the canaries | |||||
Recent evidence 241 signals filed
The research system PRO
- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v44, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 241 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
- Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
When we're wrong
2 theses are currently moving against us — Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +44.7% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +56.5% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.