The SaaS Apocalypse
AI tooling is dismantling the value proposition of incumbent SaaS products. The pattern is not head-on competition but death by a thousand cuts — no single vibe-coded tool competes with Photoshop, but when millions of users need only 1% of its functionality, the market fragments irreparably.
+41.9pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+59.2% · 7 instruments
S&P 500 same period+17.3%
Call directionBearish ↓
A bearish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ADBEAdobe | 255.06 | -0.7% | +4.4% | -12.9pp | — |
| FIGFigma | 22.98 | +1.2% | +7.3% | -10.0pp | — |
| CRMSalesforce | 241.78 | -0.3% | +30.7% | +13.3pp | — |
| IGViShares Software ETF | 108.82 | +1.8% | +35.2% | +17.9pp | — |
| NOWServiceNow | 153.12 | +2.4% | +49.5% | +32.2pp | — |
| WDAYWorkday | 202.96 | -0.5% | +56.5% | +39.1pp | — |
| TEAMAtlassian | 225.51 | +2.0% | +231.2% | +213.9pp | — |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 773.09 | +0.5% | +17.3% | — | — |
| Basket: Seat-priced SaaS: sector ETF plus the canaries | |||||
Recent evidence 244 signals filed
The research system PRO
- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v44, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 244 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
- Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
When we're wrong
2 theses are currently moving against us — Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +42.9% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +59.2% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.