The Home Watershed
AI capability is crossing the threshold where it runs meaningfully on consumer and home hardware — the concept/watershed where the transformation reaches everyone, not just developers and enterprises. Mark's watershed formulation captures the moment where capability meets accessibility.
+45.9pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+61.8% · 5 instruments
S&P 500 same period+15.9%
Call directionBullish ↑
A bullish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUMicron | 857.21 | -6.2% | +126.9% | +111.0pp | — |
| INTCIntel | 85.61 | -7.9% | +68.6% | +52.7pp | — |
| ARMARM Holdings | 210.07 | -7.3% | +41.2% | +25.3pp | — |
| QCOMQualcomm | 173.08 | -2.7% | +37.7% | +21.8pp | — |
| AAPLApple | 348.00 | +1.2% | +34.4% | +18.6pp | — |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 763.59 | -1.2% | +15.9% | — | — |
| Basket: Consumer silicon capable of frontier-adjacent inference | |||||
Recent evidence 265 signals filed
The research system PRO
- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v40, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 265 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
- Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
When we're wrong
2 theses are currently moving against us — Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +39.7% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +62.1% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.