The Home Watershed
AI capability is crossing the threshold where it runs meaningfully on consumer and home hardware — the concept/watershed where the transformation reaches everyone, not just developers and enterprises. Mark's watershed formulation captures the moment where capability meets accessibility.
+57.5pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+74.6% · 5 instruments
S&P 500 same period+17.1%
Call directionBullish ↑
A bullish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MUMicron | 931.24 | +1.9% | +146.5% | +129.4pp | — |
| INTCIntel | 95.37 | -2.8% | +87.8% | +70.7pp | — |
| ARMARM Holdings | 244.79 | +2.8% | +64.5% | +47.4pp | — |
| QCOMQualcomm | 178.40 | +3.3% | +41.9% | +24.8pp | — |
| AAPLApple | 342.00 | -0.3% | +32.1% | +15.0pp | — |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 771.77 | +0.3% | +17.1% | — | — |
| Basket: Consumer silicon capable of frontier-adjacent inference | |||||
Recent evidence 265 signals filed
The research system PRO
- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v40, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 265 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
- Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
When we're wrong
2 theses are currently moving against us — Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +44.7% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +56.5% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.