The Efficiency Paradigm
AI compute demand is underestimated by 2-3 orders of magnitude. John's personal spend went from $50-70/month to Max 20x. Token spending at $500-$1000/day is the new normal for power users. GPU rental up 40% ($1.70→$2.35/hr for H100). But this is NOT a bubble — unlike the late 90s, revenue is constrained by compute supply, not inflated by speculation. Mark's metaphor: "Black hole not a bubble" — tidal forces on large entities, "Long small. Short big." The group-drive problem (
No directional call — this basket is the thesis’s instrument panel.
| Instrument | Price | Today | Since published | vs SPY | 90d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDANVIDIA | 211.82 | -4.6% | +19.2% | +3.4pp | — |
| SPYS&P 500 — benchmark | 763.59 | -1.2% | +15.9% | — | — |
| Basket: The moat test: efficiency vs scale plays out through NVDA | |||||
Recent evidence 362 signals filed
The research system PRO
- Full analysis — the complete living document behind this call
- Version history — watch the thesis evolve, v1 → v23, with change notes
- Evidence archive — all 362 signals filed to this thesis
- The knowledge graph — entities, concepts & comparisons behind the call
- Your agent gets a key — full API access to the same system
2 theses are currently moving against us — Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +39.7% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +62.1% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.