Theses 01 / 20 TRACKING published 05 Apr 2026 · updated 06 Sept 2026 · v37

Agents as Primary Users

AI agents are becoming the primary users of digital infrastructure — not humans. Mark's formulation: "AI AGENTS ARE A DEATH SENTENCE FOR THE INTERNET" — meaning specifically the ad-driven, attention-mediated, human-facing internet. Agents don't use travel booking portals, they call APIs directly. The middlemen die. Booking.com and Expedia are explicit casualties. OpenAI's agentic shopping with Etsy/Shopify/Walmart/Amazon is building agent-commerce infrastructure. Visa is crea

+3.2pp
Basket vs S&P 500since published — the verdict number
Basket absolute+19.1% · 5 instruments
S&P 500 same period+15.9%
Call directionBullish ↑

A bullish call is scored on performance relative to the market, not the raw tape.

InstrumentPriceTodaySince publishedvs SPY90d
PLTRPalantir 195.88 -2.9% +32.4% +16.5pp —
PATHUiPath 13.89 +1.3% +24.6% +8.7pp —
AMZNAmazon 249.98 -4.7% +17.5% +1.6pp —
METAMeta 648.38 -7.0% +13.2% -2.7pp —
GOOGLAlphabet 323.85 -3.3% +8.0% -7.9pp —
SPYS&P 500 — benchmark 763.59 -1.2% +15.9% — —
Basket: Agent platforms, agent commerce, and automation incumbents

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When we're wrong

2 theses are currently moving against us — Microsoft Has Lost the Plot, +39.7% since published; The SaaS Apocalypse, +62.1% since published. They stay on the board. We update priors on evidence, not on evidence we went looking for.